Farming, food, and forecasting: developing outbreak resilience and sustainability in global agricultural systems. (360G-Wellcome-201828_Z_16_Z)

Crop and livestock diseases continue to pose threats to agricultural production and the provision of safe and balanced diets for healthy human populations in Sub-Saharan Africa. The problems are especially acute for invasion and spread of exotic and novel pathogen strains. Examples include rift valley fever, zoonotic diseases such as cysticerosis and echinococcus, and wheat stem rust, maize lethal necrosis and cassava brown streak disease in staple crops. The impacts and risks of epidemic spread are intensified by changing patterns in the agricultural landscapes, driven by population growth and urbanisation, and exacerbated by climate change. Conventional responses to epidemic outbreaks tend to respond reactively, inefficiently and de novo to each new threat. Building upon recent developments in the effective use of modelling to inform epidemiological policy, we have assembled a group of animal and botanical epidemiologists, together with experts in health, economics, social science and policy, to develop and test a robust framework for Sub-Saharan Africa. The epidemiological framework will address multiple scales (farm, district, national and regional) and provide planners, regulators and others with tools to minimise the risks of outbreaks, prepare for and manage outbreaks efficiently, and assess likely impacts of disease on food security, health and livelihoods.