Spatio-temporal dynamics of livestock infections: generic concepts of prediction and control. (360G-Wellcome-078915_A_05_Z)

This project has three main aims:1) To create mathematical models of micro-parasitic livestock infections which span a range of epidemiological disease profiles: from predominantly local transmission to situations where transmission is mainly through the movement of infected animals; from rapidly transmitted infections where the farm can be treated as the unit of infection to more slowly transmitted infections where the within-farm dynamics are more important.2) To determine appropriate and effective control measures for a range of disease scenarios; to develop methods to optimise control measures when logistical constraints or trade-offs exist; to determine if trigger-points exist which acts as cues for switching to a particular control strategy.3) To develop specific models for three livestock diseases that span the range of potential disease behaviours: E. coli O157 - spread relatively slowly primarily by animal movements and from environmental sources; foot-and-mouth disease - rapidly spread by both local transmission and the movement of animals and personnel; avian influenza - moderately quick spread primarily by local transmission.Throughout, emphasis will be placed both on developing cutting-edge modelling technology and its practical application as a tool for advising policy makers.