Managing viral emergence at the interface of bats and livestock (360G-Wellcome-102507_Z_13_Z)

Control of endemic and emerging pathogens is hampered by inadequate understanding of pathogen diversity and the mechanisms driving transmission within and between species. Molecular sequence data are increasingly available and promise to revolutionize this uncertainty, but analytical tools to integrate evolutionary data into mechanistic models of disease dynamics are needed. I have established a research programme in Peru that tracks rabies virus exposure histories in vampire bats through spatia lly replicated, longitudinal surveys, together with detailed case reports and sequence data from hundreds of rabies outbreaks in livestock. In this fellowship, I will expand and integrate these data to link the spatio-temporal dynamics of viral persistence within bats to patterns of cross-species emergence. I will partner with the Peruvian government to estimate of the burden and risk factors of livestock rabies, allowing economic valuation and informed distribution of limited resources, while e mpowering national surveillance data to parameterize mechanistic models linking viral persistence and emergence. These models will be applied to explore the efficacy of potential oral vaccination and culling campaigns for rabies control. A final goal will establish a framework to explore patterns of viral transmission and evolution between ecologically linked species (bats, livestock) by conducting genomic surveillance of sentinel animals.