Palm Oil: Sustainability, Health and Economics (POSHE) (360G-Wellcome-103905_B_14_A)

Palm oil, a ubiquitous food ingredient, has brought economic benefit to Asia, but has been linked with negative health and environmental outcomes. Previous research has found strong associations between palm oil intake and mortality from cardiovascular disease, and between oil palm production and environmental degradation. Given consumption trends in the region, potential health impacts flowing from careful policy development to restrict intake are substantial. The proposed work will break new ground in terms of (i) investigating health, economic as well as environmental aspects of palm oil, and (ii) integrating health as well as environmental aspects with a whole-economy macroeconomic model. We propose a pilot project for Thailand to (i) examine interconnections between economic, health and environmental dimensions of palm oil production and consumption. (ii) Identify and simulate the impacts of a set of policy-relevant scenarios, and (iii) test methods and data assimilation procedures, preparing the ground for a follow-on regional project. Our modelling approach involves integration of data and combination of Thailand-specific macroeconomic and health/demographic models with an environmental module. Policies will be simulated, and economic, health and environmental impacts estimated. Trade-offs and synergies will be examined, and policy recommendations made.