Limits to habitability under climate change (360G-Wellcome-204952_Z_16_Z)

We propose to develop improved indicators of habitability, survivability and heat-related tipping points, and to assess the effects of climate change on future population exposures, understand regional vulnerabilities to heat exposure estimates, and quantify uncertainty in the outcome measures. We will undertake further analyses using an ensemble of 20 climate models selected to reflect the full range of uncertainty, comparing global temperature changes of 1.5° C, 2°C, 2.5°C and 3°C. Different RCPs, including those consistent with the commitments in Paris, and policies for deeper cuts in emissions, will be included. We will calculate impacts of different global mitigation policies on thermal stress (combining temperature and humidity analysis) and aim to identify if there are thresholds within the global temperature range where habitability is undermined on a substantial scale in low, middle and high income countries. We would also aim to include an analysis of the times/locations in the recent decade where the proposed ‘limits of habitability’ have been breached and if possible what that has meant for local populations so that our model analysis is grounded in data. The results will be disseminated to the UNFCCC, the IPCC 1.5°C impact assessment, national climate change negotiators, WHO, ILO, UNDP, WMO, IOM and other national and international stakeholders as well as published in the peer reviewed literature. We would aim to undertake this work within a year of the grant award.