The epidemiology of MERS-CoV within the dromedary camel population, and zoonotic transmission to humans. (360G-Wellcome-203871_Z_16_A)

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a virus with pandemic potential. It can cause severe respiratory disease in humans, and was first isolated in 2012 in Saudi Arabia. Since then, more than 2079 human cases of MERS and 722 deaths have been reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO), mainly by Saudi Arabia. Evidence shows that the virus can be transmitted to humans from dromedary camels, and can also be spread from human-to-human in settings where people have close contact such as in hospitals. Surveys find that a high proportion of camels in the Arabian Peninsula and countries in North Africa have antibodies against MERS-CoV, indicating that many have been infected with the virus, which itself has been isolated from camels. However, incidence of reported human MERS cases varies hugely over this region. This work will use WHO case data to investigate the risk factors associated with higher numbers of camel-to-human transmissions of MERS-CoV, which are currently unclear making it hard to design interventions against MERS. We also aim to use mathematical models of MERS transmission amongst camels, and genetic analysis of the viruses isolated from camels to better characterise the way the virus circulates in the animals.