The effectiveness of mass media campaigns in reducing smoking, second-hand smoke exposure and smoking-related disease in England and Wales. (360G-Wellcome-099402_Z_12_Z)

This research will evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of anti-tobacco mass media campaigns in England and Wales since 2004 using key indicators of smoking behaviour and smoking-related health outcomes in the general population, and in specific population groups. We will use a combination of time series analysis and longitudinal panel study analysis, using data from national datasets. Our outcomes will include smoking prevalence, rates of smoking cessation medication prescriptions, and GP consultations for children's respiratory disease (The Health Improvement Network primary care data), NHS quitline calls, NHS stop smoking service (SSS) attendees and 4 week quitters, NRT sales, Health Survey for England children's cotinine measurements, and Hospital Episode Statistics on acute MIs. Autoregressive time series models will be used to estimate population-level change in smoking behaviours and health outcomes in response to specific campaigns, or month-to-month change in advertising reach and spend, specifying the appropriate autoregressive process and transfer function, and modelling underlying trends, seasonality, and impacts of other tobacco control policies. Longitudinal analysis will use International Tobacco Control (ITC) UK data of over 2000 adult smokers and recent ex-smokers to assess individual changes in smoking behaviour and attitudes pre and post campaigns using random effects regression models. The economic model will link mass-media campaigns (via expenditure and coverage) to intermediate stop-smoking outcomes (calls to quit helplines, SSS attendance), the impact of those stop-smoking outcomes on intermediate health outcomes (AMI and respiratory disease) and the costs avoided following reductions in those health outcomes. The study will provide evidence as to whether government spending on mass media campaigns is effective and cost-effective, and for prioritising future funding to maximise its impact and reach its target audience.