Targeting malaria hotspots in Myanmar: An individual-based modeling approach (360G-Wellcome-205240_Z_16_Z)

The epidemiology of malaria in Myanmar has been changing with its decreasing incidence in Myanmar, while there is also an urgent need to address emerging resistance to artemisinin. Current malaria control strategies are no longer enough to achieve elimination. New strategies, like targeting of malaria hotspots where transmission intensity exceeds the average, have been suggested both by studies and the WHO. Such targeted strategies has been implemented in Kayin, Myanmar. However, detection of hotspots using qPCR has been limited to randomly selected villages because of the financial and operational constraints. This could be optimized by a simulation model. The proposed project will develop an individual-based mathematical model to: - Understand/model the changing epidemiology of malaria as its incidence declines in Myanmar - Derive cost-effective strategy to identify and treat malaria hotspots in Kayin, Myanmar As inputs, the model will have census data, population movement, and malaria data from relevant sources to create a dynamic, synthetic population. Simulated individuals will have their own risk of infection, health behaviour and response to treatment which will influence the overall disease transmission dynamics. A corresponding mosquito model will drive the force of infection for humans. Several detection methods and treatment strategies will be simulated.