Estimating the burden of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Latin America (360G-Wellcome-206471_Z_17_Z)

Since the mid 1990s, Latin America has seen a resurgence of arboviral disease. All four serotypes of dengue are now endemic and recent invasions of chikungunya and Zika viruses threaten to also persist. New strategies are urgently needed to combat co-circulation of arboviruses and the diseases they cause. Estimates of arbovirus burden are crucial to ensure these new strategies are optimally prioritised, targeted, measured and evaluated, however traditional passive surveillance suffers some key systemic biases. This research aims to improve the estimates of arboviral burden in Latin America by quantifying the main biases and gaps in passive surveillance data. This will be achieved by comparing passive data to equivalent metrics generated from applying mathematical and statistical models to community-based seroprevalence and routine laboratory testing data. Final burden estimates disaggregated by virus, disease severity, country and year since 2010 will be generated by leveraging information from multiple data types and propagating their uncertainty. Engaging Ministries of Health to explain, investigate and ultimately improve these estimates will be an important final output to achieve impact. Beyond the project, these burden estimates can be used to design rational strategies against what is rapidly becoming the biggest public health priority in Latin America.