Risk-based Prevention of Heart Disease and Stroke in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Pooled Analysis of Prospective Cohorts and Population-Based Surveys (360G-Wellcome-214185_Z_18_Z)

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide, disproportionally affecting low- and middle-income countries. Prevention strategies can target the whole population (e.g., salt reduction policies), or those at high risk of developing a CVD. A risk-based approach to CVD prevention leverages the momentum of universal health coverage in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and to guide treatment allocation based on the absolute risk of disease. The CVD risk-based approach requires the use of risk prediction equations. Available equations do not perform well in LAC, probably because they have not included LAC studies in their development. Neither does LAC have an estimate of people in need of treatment and whether they receive it. I will pool LAC cohort data to develop a CVD risk prediction equation containing established risk factors. Using the equation and population-based data on risk factors, I will compute the prevalence of high cardiovascular risk in LAC and the proportion of high-risk people receiving treatment (e.g., anti-hypertensive drugs).