Elucidating pathways of pathogen emergence and expansion within shifting landscapes in Africa (360G-Wellcome-335374_Z_25_Z)

Shifting global trends such as urbanization, land-use change, wildlife trade, and increased connectivity are amplifying pathogen spillover and expansion. Africa is central to this dynamic. The continent faces converging factors which make it both highly vulnerable to emerging pathogens, but also ideally positioned for better preparedness. While Africa’s primary forests, savannas and wetlands, and wildlife diversity already positions the continent as an ecological hotspot for zoonotic emergence, rapid urbanization, growing population numbers, agricultural demands, changing land-use, and climate change increase human-animal-pathogen interactions. The goal of this project is to develop and execute integrated data analytical methods and propose a new framework to improve understanding of pathogen emergence and expansion in Africa. The main hypothesis is that the latter is determined by the dynamic interplay between reservoir ecology, pathogen evolution, human-mediated introduction pathways, and local transmission conditions. This fellowship will focus on three categories of pathogens, spanning distinct transmission modes, disease ecology and geographical distributions: i) Arboviruses, ii) Mpox virus, and iii) Respiratory viruses. It will tackle disease spillover dynamics in the context of reservoir distributions, genetic evolution, contact at human-animal interface, and imported introductions, and forecast epidemic expansion potential after emergence across shifting landscapes in Africa, towards better pandemic preparedness.