Modelling the Health and Economic Impact of Scaling Up Diabetes Screening Strategies to Achieve the WHO Global Diabetes Compact Target for Diagnosis in Kenya:The Kenya Kisukari Model. (360G-Wellcome-337566_Z_25_Z)

Type 2 diabetes is an escalating public health concern in Kenya, with a growing burden of undiagnosed cases leading to late presentation, complications, and increased healthcare costs. The World Health Organization’s Global Diabetes Compact (GDC) has set ambitious targets for timely diagnosis, yet progress in many low- and middle-income countries remains slow. This PhD project seeks to model the health and economic impact of scaling up diabetes screening strategies in Kenya to accelerate progress toward the GDC diagnostic target. The study will employ a combination of systematic evidence synthesis, stakeholder engagement, and decision-analytic modeling. First, a systematic review will identify and characterize diabetes screening interventions implemented in Africa. Second, a qualitative study will capture stakeholder perspectives on screening policies, barriers, and facilitators, with particular attention to the influence of the GDC. Third, a mathematical and economic model will be developed to evaluate different screening strategies, estimating their potential impact on early diagnosis, health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Findings will provide evidence to inform Kenyan policy and practice, supporting decision-makers to prioritize feasible, equitable, and cost-effective approaches to diabetes screening. Ultimately, the research aims to contribute to reducing the burden of undiagnosed diabetes and strengthening chronic disease prevention in Kenya.