Complex Connections: Simulating Interventions for Multimorbidity Prevention and Levelling-up Equity (SIMPLE) (360G-Wellcome-341823_Z_25_Z)

Multimorbidity, defined as living with two or more chronic health conditions, is becoming more common globally, and is strongly linked to deprivation. It is associated with poorer quality of life, higher healthcare usage, and worsening of health inequalities. To tackle this, “place-based” public health interventions that focus on improving the areas that people live in, for example, better housing, green space availability and access to transport, are becoming more popular. However, we do not fully understand how effective these interventions are in preventing or slowing down the development of multimorbidity, and/or whether they reduce or widen health inequalities. The SIMPLE project aims to develop a computer simulation, known as an Agent-Based Model (ABM), that mimics how people in Scotland develop multimorbidity over time, factoring in individual and group behaviours and interactions, health status, and the environments they live in. By simulating the effects of various public health interventions, the model will help predict what works, for whom, and where, and whether these actions make health inequalities better or worse. The SIMPLE project will provide new tools and insights for public health professionals and policy-makers to plan fairer, more efficient strategies to reduce the rising burden of multimorbidity in Scotland.