Optimising Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in the Type 2 Diabetes UK Population: Enhancing Resource Allocation and Informing National Health Recommendations (360G-Wellcome-342279_Z_25_Z)

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a growing public health challenge in the UK, with increasing incidence, particularly among people under 40 years of age. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents the main source of morbidity and mortality in individuals with T2D, placing substantial burdens on patients, families, and healthcare systems. However, existing CVD risk prediction models for people with T2D are often unreliable therefore limits their ability to identify individuals at high risk of potentially preventable cardiovascular events. The aim of this project is to improve the prediction of preventable CVD among people with T2D. The research method will be conducted in four phases. Phase 1 involves a PROSPERO-registered systematic review to critically evaluate existing CVD risk prediction models used in T2D populations. Phase 2 focuses on the development of a new risk prediction model using 10 years of follow-up data from 3,057 participants in the ADDITION-Europe trial, incorporating both traditional cardiovascular and T2D-specific risk factors. Phase 3 will externally validate the model using UK-wide T2D datasets to assess its generalisability and performance. Finally, Phase 4 will explore preferences of primary care practitioners and patients through a survey, ensuring the model’s design and functionality support effective implementation in clinical practice.